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Giving Home > Giving News > Finance News > Treasury Yields Drop

Treasury Yields Drop

Published August 1, 2025

Treasury yields varied throughout the week as investors waited for the latest consumer spending data. Yields fell slightly at the end of the week as the jobless claims report suggested a softening of the labor market.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which measures the cost of goods and services purchased by U.S. households, rose 2.6% in June, above analysts’ expectations of a 2.5% increase. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% on an annual basis, also above the forecast 2.7% rise.

“Tariffs are beginning to make their mark on the inflation data,” said deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Michael Pearce. “While services inflation remains subdued, helped by slowing housing inflation, core goods prices are up sharply in recent months. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell argued on Wednesday, the Fed will not cut rates until it is confident that a temporary rise in goods prices is not bleeding through into broader inflation and inflation expectations.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 28 at 4.39% and traded as high as 4.42% on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.93% and traded as high as 4.97% on Tuesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 218,000 for the week ending July 26. This was an increase of 1,000 from the prior week and fell below analysts’ expectations of 224,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 2,500 to 1.95 million. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for July which indicated the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The report also noted an increase of 73,000 jobs in July, below economists’ forecasts of 115,000.

“Initial claims have been noisy over the last few weeks due to seasonal factors,” said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. "Sorting through the noise, initial claims are consistent with a low pace of layoffs. Continued claims are still elevated, signaling unemployed workers are finding it difficult to find new jobs, but are showing signs of leveling off."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 7/28 at 4.23%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.84%.